Climate groups look to Carney's second budget to narrow emissions gap

The Carney government's second federal budget, due Thursday, is being watched by climate groups for signs of how Ottawa plans to close a gap between Canada's emissions path and its goal of net zero by 2050, according to a CBC News analysis.

The Canadian Climate Institute says its projections still show what it calls a "cavernous gap" between Canada's current track and the mid-century target. The government remains committed to aiming for net zero by 2050.

Off track for 2030

Analysis the institute published last month concluded Canada will not meet its 2030 target. The previous Liberal government under Justin Trudeau set a goal of cutting emissions by 40 per cent below 2005 levels. The institute estimates they might fall by only 21 per cent.

Prime Minister Mark Carney acknowledged in June that changes by his government would leave emissions higher in the next few years than projected under the previous government's plan. In his words, "our emissions will be higher in the next few years than they were projected to be under the previous government's plan."

Heat pumps and electricity

Earlier this month, Carney announced a $2-billion heat pump rebate program that the government projects could benefit about 820,000 households. The institute called it a "modest" boost to electrification. Its president, Rick Smith, said it was "a good first step."

Carney has said affordability concerns are weighing on climate policy and has put clean electricity at the centre of his agenda. The government's electricity strategy embraces doubling Canada's electricity grid by 2050. Carney has spoken of using the government balance sheet to spread costs over a long period.

Pre-budget submissions came from the Green Budget Coalition, New Economy Canada, Clean Energy Canada, Efficiency Canada and the Pembina Institute. They proposed measures to boost clean electricity and support home and building retrofits.

The climate institute has proposed a new federal fund to help provincial utilities manage expansion costs. Tyler Meredith, a former policy adviser in the Trudeau government, has proposed a federal transfer of $5.4 billion per year tied to legislated conditions, similar to health-care funding for provinces.

Merran Smith of New Economy Canada said helping provinces finance the electricity build-out and needed interconnections is the first priority. She said she will look for progress on how Ottawa could work with provincial utilities.

Other files and public opinion

Rick Smith argued in an op-ed this fall that Carney can now be measured against his own climate commitments. He said the government's plan is a series of specific commitments that it has yet to back with substance.

Recent changes to vehicle regulations disappointed climate groups, though the government also promised a national charging infrastructure strategy. A federal-provincial working group is scheduled to make recommendations next summer on linking provincial carbon markets. The government has also discussed improving industrial carbon pricing.

Environics found that 3 per cent of Canadians named climate change the most important issue this year, down from 24 per cent in 2019. Abacus Data found that 80 per cent said this spring they were at least moderately concerned about climate change, and it also detected uncertainty about the government's approach.